最近两名车臣黑寡妇制造了莫斯科地铁大爆炸，造成四十多人死亡。恐怖主义已经成了一个大问题，无论去到哪里我们都觉得不安全，先是飞机，九一一价格借此机会大涨，而且安检也越来越复杂，现在就连地铁也不安全了。人们都将矛头指向恐怖主义者，究竟这些黑寡妇是谁？她们为什么要实施自杀式攻击？
车臣是俄罗斯联邦的一个共和国，地处欧洲东南部，北高加索山脉地区。这个地区盛产黑寡妇，其原因可追溯至1940年代斯大林的残酷统治时期。暴君斯大林为了强化他的统治，强行驱赶车臣人民离开自己的家园去到哈萨克斯坦或西伯利亚，车臣人民对他的暴政进行了英勇的反抗，斯大林以车臣人帮助德国法西斯为名，对车臣进行乐残酷的大屠杀，一时间寡妇处处可见，由于他们信仰伊斯兰教，喜穿黑色，故称‘黑寡妇’。由此可见，真正的恐怖主义者是斯大林，而非受尽苦难的车臣人民。这些黑寡妇，都非常年轻，最近的那个才17岁，花一般的年龄，她们本应该过着快乐美好的生活，无忧无虑，应该穿着时装去学校读书，而不是身绑炸弹去炸人炸己。试想有谁愿意这样做？反正我是不会。而她们小小年纪便已丧父，结婚不久便丧夫，接着还要忍受丧子之痛，她们的生活毫无希望，没有什么比绝望的女人更可怕的。我认为对这些人应实行安抚政策，而不是一味地镇压，就像孙子兵法中所说的‘不战而屈人之兵乃善之善者也’。强硬政策只能制造更多的黑寡妇。同样的道理，建议美国也不要欺人太甚。
Recently two Chechnya black widow suicide bombers struck the Moscow metro, killing 40 people. Now terrorism has become a severe problem. We don’t feel safe wherever we go. Flying is the first of our problems. We have to pay more after 911, when checking became more troublesome. Now even the trains are a problem. So many people point the finger at terrorists. Who are these black widows? Why are they killing innocent civilians?
The Chechen Republic, or, informally, Chechnya, sometimes referred to as Ichkeria, Chechnia, Chechenia or Noxçiyn, is a federal subject of Russia. It is located in the South eastern part of Europe, in the Northern Caucasus mountains, in the North Caucasian Federal District. Why is this region especially famous for black widows? The problem can be traced back to the 1940s during the time of Joseph Stalin’s rule. He deprived them of living in their own region and relocated them to Kazakhstan and Siberia in order to strengthen his dictatorial ruling by accusing them of helping the Nazi Germany. Many people refused to leave their homeland and they were killed. In only a short time, many women became widows. So now we are able to see who are the real terrorists? I think it confirms that the biggest terrorist of all was Joseph Stalin and not the long suffering Chechnyans. They were only being used as the scapegoat. As they are Muslims and like to dress in black especially in mourning, that’s why they were called black widows. They are a very pitiful, tragic people, as when they were young their fathers were killed by the Russian Government forces and then their husbands, usually soon after they got married. And in the end, their sons too were victims of the same fate. What is the meaning of their lives? Absolutely there can be no meaning! At least I don’t see any. Think about pulling the trigger of the bombs attached to your body, appalling right? You dare to do? Definitely not I! You know they are all quite young. The most recent one was only 17 years old. It is a flowery age, 17. Some of them are very beautiful. They should have had a bright future. They should go to schools and laugh a lot at their age instead of carrying bombs and killing other people including themselves. Then why do they do it? It’s simply because they have now lost all hope. So if you have killed their fathers, husbands and sons, then the sole purpose in their lives would only be to seek a bloody revenge. After all, it was the Government who had made the first mistake. I think it’s impossible to kill all of them and it can never be the solution. The more you kill, the more black widows you’ll have and hence more troubles. No government should ever force anybody to that extent. The Russian Government should try to calm the situation and make a sincere apology for what they have done during the Second World War sincerely and comfort them. Likewise the US Government also should not force other countries without due consideration of the consequences. Effective government is like an art form. Like Sun Zi mentioned in his book, “The best way is to win a person over without using force.” You can use your fist as in previous Russian and US administration, of course, but in the end what will we get? Only more black widows and temporary peace. A greater and more catastrophic revenge is brewing.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
也谈中美贸易战 / Should Renminbi Appreciate?
美国人最近强迫人民币升值，他们叫嚣中国操纵货币，且蛮不讲理地把它的经济倒退归结为是人民币币值过低的结果。在这里，我不禁想问问美国人认为人民币币值太低的理由是什么呢？单单是因为中美贸易中所存在的大量贸易逆差么?那究竟人民币是否存在币值过低的问题呢?是否真的如果人民币一生值，美国乃至全世界都能从水深火热之中解放出来呢？古人云，以史为镜可以照兴衰，那我们就不妨用历史这面镜子来照一照，让它把我们带回到十多年前的日本，看看当时日元急剧升值是否解决了问题。相信大家都还对日元升值记忆犹新吧。那时美国大耍霸权经济，使用了极其卑鄙的手段出了一分虚假数据，欺骗并威胁经验不足的日本，让他们充当美国经济一蹶不振的替罪羊，而日本由于对美国政治经济的过度依赖不得不低头让步，致使日本经济从此一蹶不振，至今也没能缓过气来。可是当时的日本怎么说来跟今天的中国有着天壤之别，当时的日本已经相当发达，技术相当先进，它拥有汽车制造及电子等王牌工业，即便升值人们也不得不买这些产品；反观现在的中国，仍然是个贫困国家，去年超过8%的增长率不过是以牺牲自己的资源和环境为代价，不得已而为之的结果，中国的出国产品主要是廉价的服装，鞋子和玩具等，毫无技术含量可言，一旦升值，无数企业将倒闭，工人将大量失业，如果说日元的升值使得日本经济徘徊不前，那么人民币的升值势必造成中国经济的巨大倒退。当时日元的升值也给日本人民带来了小小的好处，那就是去到海外的日本人忽然觉得自己一夜之间变成了富翁富婆，无论走到哪里，无论购买什么东西，都不禁惊呼“安い”；那人民币的升值会不会也能暂时满足一下中国人的虚荣心呢？放心，没可能，想都别想，都说过了中国不具备人家非买不可的王牌产品，升值便是断了自己的财路，钱都没了，还谈什么升值？升得再多也不关你什么事了。
美国的另一个如意算盘是因为它欠了中国大量的债，一旦人民币升值20%， 那就意味着它可以轻松地来掉20%的债务。有钱人，难道你们的良心都被狗吃了吗？你们不知道这些都是中国人民的血汗吗？那可是他们用生命换来的呀，别的不说，就看看那些几乎每天都出事的小煤窑吧，你们以为他们不知道那工作的辛苦吗？难道他们不知道哪有多么的危险吗？他们当然都知道，可为什么他们还是前赴后继的要去呢?因为他们要生活呀，他们跟你们一样也是为人子，为人夫，为人父啊！赖掉从这样的人借来的债，你们花的舒服吗？这不是与你们所声称的价值观相违背的吗？
美国亦打算通过人民币的升值来解决自己日益增加的中美贸易逆差，缓解人民对政府无能力摆脱其国内危机的指责，降低国内居高不下的失业率，那么人民币的升值真的能达到这个目的吗？事实上恰恰相反，经济快速增长的中国已经同时也将给以美国为首的发达国家带来无限的商机，过去一年的事实已经证明了这一点；而且中国经济的快速增长势必造就一大批富裕的中产阶级，而这些暴富的且爱炫耀的中国人也必然会走出国门，将大把的银子掷于国外，特别是那些发达国家，因为中国所生产的廉价商品说到底是无法满足他们的虚荣心的。反观如果一旦中国也陷入了发展危机，那从长远来看，以美国为首的发达国家的厄运同样无法避免，怎么说来，中国也是他们最大的贸易伙伴及市场嘛，如果一下子失去了那么多的顾客，美国反倒能反败为胜那才叫怪呢。所以人民币的升值最好的结果也不过就是把中国也拖下水，大家一起过苦日子罢了。如果美国政府真心想解决贸易逆差问题，必须勇敢地剖析自己，从自己身上找原因，而不是指责他人操纵货币，如果说中国人根据自己的国情和世界大环境来决定自己的货币是错的话,那么美国人不过中国人民的利益及美国和全世界的长远利益而硬要人民币升值，尤其不是在操纵他国的货币？这难道就是对的吗？所以说真正解决其贸易逆差应该是美国应不断提高自己的技术含量，制造别人不能制造的东西；降低生产成本，提高生产力。其实暂时的逆境不是坏事，它可以促进美国的进一步成长，变被动为主动，这样美国才能永远屹立于世界霸主地位；如果Obama政府看不到这一点，只会一味地跟发展中国家抢饭碗，劳动力成品却又居高不下，那只会给世人留下一个美国已是江郎才尽，没咒可念的印象，那美国的衰亡已是大势所趋，无可避免，只是一个时间问题了。
Recently the US government has forced the Renminbi to increase in value. They blame the Chinese Government of manipulating its currency. They said it’s because Reminbi is under valued, therefore, causing their recession. I’d like to question the US government policy here. What makes you think the Reminbi is under valued? Simply because of the Sino-US trade deficits? Is the Reminbi really under valued? Once Reminbi appreciates, will it solve the problem of the world recession? As the famous proverb says, ‘History is a mirror, it will guide us the way.’ Let’s look into this mirror and see what happened in the past. More than 10 years ago, the same situation happened in Japan. At that time, the US government forced changes in Japan’s fiscal policy by threatening it as well - by showing them a false statistic report. Due to its lack of experience, Japan was fooled. As that time, Japan’s export economy largely relied on the US market.
They finally decided to bow to US pressure. Since then, Japan’s economic progress has stagnated. But today’s China is totally deferent from Japan. Japan was already quite advanced. It had its key technology industries such as car manufacturing and electronics. Even with this currency appreciation, common people still had to buy their products. But China even now has less undeveloped sectors in its economy. Last year’s GDP the growth of 8% was the result of sacrificing human resources and the environment.
The majority of China’s industries are still labor intensive such as textile, clothing, shoe manufacturing and toys. Once the RMB appreciates, countless numbers of factories will go bankrupt, and millions of workers will lose their jobs. If the appreciation of the Japanese Yen resulted in economic stagnation, the appreciation of Reminbi will also inevitably cause a huge setback. The revaluation of Japanese Yen also brought some small benefit, that is, where ever Japanese went, whatever they brought, they would say,’ 安い’. Would that apply to the Chinese? No, definitely not. Better stop your day dreaming. Why? Just now, I have already mentioned, China’s industry basically is still labor intensive. Once revalued, nobody will buy them. They will lose their livelihood.
The other reason why the US is forcing China to revalue is US borrowed large amount of money from China. If Renminbi increases by 20%, it means US sheds off 20% its debt. But don’t know they know how difficult it is for Chinese people to make this money? They even have to sacrifice their lives. Have you heard of those coal mine explosions? You think Chinese are so stupid that they don’t know it’s so dangerous to work there? Of course they knew. But they had their families relying on them. Even after you heard about these situations, you still feel comfortable to rob money stained with Chinese people’s blood? Isn’t that against your Christian teaching?
The US government also planned to solve their trade deficit problem and high employment rate through the revaluation. Will it be solved? No, on the contrary, it will be worsened. The rapid growth of China will continue to bring lots of opportunities to the US as well as the whole world. Meanwhile the wealthy middle class consumer’s demand for “made in China” products class will also flood the foreign market by either traveling there or buying luxury products. The cheap for sure cannot satisfy their showy appetite. If China stops its growing, in the long run, the US and the rest of the world also will suffer simply because China now is their biggest trading partner. So by Renminbi’s appreciation the maximum US can do is pull China’s leg and in the end everybody goes down together. If US government really wants to solve the deficit problem, it should find the reason on its own rather than blaming others. If it is “wrong” for China to “manipulate” its currency value based on its own conditions, why it is a right move for US to force China to appreciate its currency? This is not considered as manipulating another country’s currency? Here I would like to give some advice to the US government. The US should switch from labor intensive to value-added or even technology-based products which other country cannot make. It should focus on cutting costs and improving productivity. The US government should adopt a new positive thinking. It should take it as the opportunity to improve itself. If the Obama administration fails to see this, and still compete with the developing countries, then US’s failure is destined. It’s just a matter of time.
美国的另一个如意算盘是因为它欠了中国大量的债，一旦人民币升值20%， 那就意味着它可以轻松地来掉20%的债务。有钱人，难道你们的良心都被狗吃了吗？你们不知道这些都是中国人民的血汗吗？那可是他们用生命换来的呀，别的不说，就看看那些几乎每天都出事的小煤窑吧，你们以为他们不知道那工作的辛苦吗？难道他们不知道哪有多么的危险吗？他们当然都知道，可为什么他们还是前赴后继的要去呢?因为他们要生活呀，他们跟你们一样也是为人子，为人夫，为人父啊！赖掉从这样的人借来的债，你们花的舒服吗？这不是与你们所声称的价值观相违背的吗？
美国亦打算通过人民币的升值来解决自己日益增加的中美贸易逆差，缓解人民对政府无能力摆脱其国内危机的指责，降低国内居高不下的失业率，那么人民币的升值真的能达到这个目的吗？事实上恰恰相反，经济快速增长的中国已经同时也将给以美国为首的发达国家带来无限的商机，过去一年的事实已经证明了这一点；而且中国经济的快速增长势必造就一大批富裕的中产阶级，而这些暴富的且爱炫耀的中国人也必然会走出国门，将大把的银子掷于国外，特别是那些发达国家，因为中国所生产的廉价商品说到底是无法满足他们的虚荣心的。反观如果一旦中国也陷入了发展危机，那从长远来看，以美国为首的发达国家的厄运同样无法避免，怎么说来，中国也是他们最大的贸易伙伴及市场嘛，如果一下子失去了那么多的顾客，美国反倒能反败为胜那才叫怪呢。所以人民币的升值最好的结果也不过就是把中国也拖下水，大家一起过苦日子罢了。如果美国政府真心想解决贸易逆差问题，必须勇敢地剖析自己，从自己身上找原因，而不是指责他人操纵货币，如果说中国人根据自己的国情和世界大环境来决定自己的货币是错的话,那么美国人不过中国人民的利益及美国和全世界的长远利益而硬要人民币升值，尤其不是在操纵他国的货币？这难道就是对的吗？所以说真正解决其贸易逆差应该是美国应不断提高自己的技术含量，制造别人不能制造的东西；降低生产成本，提高生产力。其实暂时的逆境不是坏事，它可以促进美国的进一步成长，变被动为主动，这样美国才能永远屹立于世界霸主地位；如果Obama政府看不到这一点，只会一味地跟发展中国家抢饭碗，劳动力成品却又居高不下，那只会给世人留下一个美国已是江郎才尽，没咒可念的印象，那美国的衰亡已是大势所趋，无可避免，只是一个时间问题了。
Recently the US government has forced the Renminbi to increase in value. They blame the Chinese Government of manipulating its currency. They said it’s because Reminbi is under valued, therefore, causing their recession. I’d like to question the US government policy here. What makes you think the Reminbi is under valued? Simply because of the Sino-US trade deficits? Is the Reminbi really under valued? Once Reminbi appreciates, will it solve the problem of the world recession? As the famous proverb says, ‘History is a mirror, it will guide us the way.’ Let’s look into this mirror and see what happened in the past. More than 10 years ago, the same situation happened in Japan. At that time, the US government forced changes in Japan’s fiscal policy by threatening it as well - by showing them a false statistic report. Due to its lack of experience, Japan was fooled. As that time, Japan’s export economy largely relied on the US market.
They finally decided to bow to US pressure. Since then, Japan’s economic progress has stagnated. But today’s China is totally deferent from Japan. Japan was already quite advanced. It had its key technology industries such as car manufacturing and electronics. Even with this currency appreciation, common people still had to buy their products. But China even now has less undeveloped sectors in its economy. Last year’s GDP the growth of 8% was the result of sacrificing human resources and the environment.
The majority of China’s industries are still labor intensive such as textile, clothing, shoe manufacturing and toys. Once the RMB appreciates, countless numbers of factories will go bankrupt, and millions of workers will lose their jobs. If the appreciation of the Japanese Yen resulted in economic stagnation, the appreciation of Reminbi will also inevitably cause a huge setback. The revaluation of Japanese Yen also brought some small benefit, that is, where ever Japanese went, whatever they brought, they would say,’ 安い’. Would that apply to the Chinese? No, definitely not. Better stop your day dreaming. Why? Just now, I have already mentioned, China’s industry basically is still labor intensive. Once revalued, nobody will buy them. They will lose their livelihood.
The other reason why the US is forcing China to revalue is US borrowed large amount of money from China. If Renminbi increases by 20%, it means US sheds off 20% its debt. But don’t know they know how difficult it is for Chinese people to make this money? They even have to sacrifice their lives. Have you heard of those coal mine explosions? You think Chinese are so stupid that they don’t know it’s so dangerous to work there? Of course they knew. But they had their families relying on them. Even after you heard about these situations, you still feel comfortable to rob money stained with Chinese people’s blood? Isn’t that against your Christian teaching?
The US government also planned to solve their trade deficit problem and high employment rate through the revaluation. Will it be solved? No, on the contrary, it will be worsened. The rapid growth of China will continue to bring lots of opportunities to the US as well as the whole world. Meanwhile the wealthy middle class consumer’s demand for “made in China” products class will also flood the foreign market by either traveling there or buying luxury products. The cheap for sure cannot satisfy their showy appetite. If China stops its growing, in the long run, the US and the rest of the world also will suffer simply because China now is their biggest trading partner. So by Renminbi’s appreciation the maximum US can do is pull China’s leg and in the end everybody goes down together. If US government really wants to solve the deficit problem, it should find the reason on its own rather than blaming others. If it is “wrong” for China to “manipulate” its currency value based on its own conditions, why it is a right move for US to force China to appreciate its currency? This is not considered as manipulating another country’s currency? Here I would like to give some advice to the US government. The US should switch from labor intensive to value-added or even technology-based products which other country cannot make. It should focus on cutting costs and improving productivity. The US government should adopt a new positive thinking. It should take it as the opportunity to improve itself. If the Obama administration fails to see this, and still compete with the developing countries, then US’s failure is destined. It’s just a matter of time.
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